The hottest local oversupply Shanghai rubber is ea

2022-07-26
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Local oversupply Shanghai rubber is easy to fall and difficult to rise

under the condition that the supply situation has not changed significantly, the rubber price is expected to be reduced to yuan/ton. The market may also be a copy of January. However, based on the gradual improvement of the global economic situation, the controller and software do not have the foundation for the turning down of the rubber price. Therefore, the specific operation should master the rhythm of short-term shorting

after the Spring Festival, the price of Shanghai Jiaotong Rubber Co., Ltd. stayed above 25000 yuan/ton for nearly a week, but finally failed to break out of the market upward, and began to fall back in early March. As the glue price fell, the differences between the long and short sides rose again, which was reflected in the increase of Shanghai glue positions. As of March 12, the total number of positions held by HuJiao had exceeded 270000, and the position level was close to the 276364 high set in mid January of the year

first of all, since the beginning of January 2010, the average price of scrwf/all latex has been running below 25000 yuan/ton, but the lowest price has never fallen below 23000 yuan/ton. In general, the spot rubber price in the first quarter was stable

relatively speaking, the fluctuation of Shanghai Jiao is more severe than the spot price. In January, the highest price of Shanghai Jiao futures once reached above 26000 yuan/ton, while the lowest price fell below the first line of 22000 yuan/ton in February. The fluctuation range was almost double that of the spot market. It is true that when the spot price is lower than the futures price, the futures price has a falling demand, while when the spot price is higher than the futures price, the futures price has a rising demand, because the spot market reflects the actual supply and demand more truly

in addition, attention should be paid to the cost of imported rubber. In the first quarter, the spot price of Qingdao free trade zone was roughly in the range of yuan/ton. If the zero tariff of composite rubber was used as a calculation reference, the upper and lower levels of the cost of imported rubber were roughly in the range of yuan/ton. Since the premium conditions exist for imported and domestic rubber, the price of imported rubber often becomes the reference for the upward resistance of the price of rubber

secondly, the stock of natural rubber on the exchange has been declining recently, which constitutes an obvious deviation from the decline of rubber price. In fact, the exchange inventory is only a part of the total inventory of Tianjiao society, that is, the explicit inventory. Therefore, the relationship between exchange inventory change and actual inventory is more complex. Since the external dependence of China's natural rubber supply has greatly exceeded 70%, the author prefers to evaluate the domestic supply from the perspective of import volume

In January, China imported 171800 tons of natural rubber and 127100 tons of synthetic rubber. The total import of rubber resources was nearly 300000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of more than 180%. In terms of the import volume of natural rubber, the import volume of natural rubber in January is only lower than that in March, April and December 2009. The import volume of natural rubber in December 2009 and January 2010 exceeded 170000 tons for two consecutive months, which is unique in recent years

the same situation also occurs in the import volume of synthetic rubber. Therefore, the supply of domestic rubber resources in the first quarter should be said to be quite abundant. The decline of the stock of Tianjiao in the exchange was not unrelated to the large number of deliveries in January, but was not closely related to the actual supply and demand. People will certainly not feel strange. In combination with the upside down situation between the spot rubber price and the imported rubber price, it is not difficult to see that the domestic rubber supply is in a slightly surplus state at this stage, which also reflects the fact that the stress change on the test sample is hovering at the futures price of 25000 yuan/ton

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