The hottest local geopolitical conflict intensifie

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Local geopolitical conflicts exacerbated uncertainty in the crude oil market. From May 2, the United States officially suspended its exemption from Iran's crude oil export and tried to completely ban Iran's crude oil export. On the 3rd, the United States announced to strengthen restrictions on Iran's nuclear activities. According to the analysis, the US sanctions against Venezuela and the OPEC LED production reduction action have already caused a gap in the global crude oil supply. At this time, the continued decline of Iran's crude oil exports will cause shocks in the global crude oil market

Iranian crude oil exports continued to decline

last May, the United States unilaterally announced its withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear agreement, restarted economic sanctions against Iran, and asked relevant countries to stop importing Iranian crude oil on November 4, 2018. In November last year, the United States announced to increase sanctions against Iran, but the largest importer of Iran's crude oil, including China, Turkey, India, South Korea and Japan, continued to import a limited amount of crude oil from Iran

the previous US sanctions have reduced Iran's daily crude oil export by half to 1million barrels, or even less. The suspension of the exemption for Iran's crude oil export means that the US will reduce Iran's crude oil export to zero

an Iranian official familiar with the crude oil policy said that from May, the daily export volume of Iranian crude oil may fall to 700000 barrels, or even as low as 500000 barrels. An OPEC consumer 3 Stretching space (mm): 600. According to the source of interest, the daily export volume of Iranian crude oil may be maintained at about 400000 to 600000 barrels. Analysts from energy aspects predict that the daily export volume of Iranian crude oil will drop to about 600000 barrels from May

at present, market participants generally believe that one month before us president trump withdrew from the nuclear agreement between the United States and Iran, the daily export volume of Iranian crude oil began to decline from the level of at least 2.5 million barrels in april2018

according to Wall Street reports, in April, the White House issued a public statement requiring all Iranian crude oil buyers to stop importing by May 1, or face sanctions. According to the analysis, the purpose of the White House is to cut off the lifeline of Iran's annual $50billion oil revenue, so as to put pressure on Iran to limit its nuclear program and ballistic missile tests

this has aroused Iran's dissatisfaction. Iranian oil minister bijanzanne told members of Congress that the trump administration's sanctions exemption plan will never be realized: "it is impossible for the United States to cut off Iran's oil exports. We will try our best to break the U.S. sanctions."

a senior official of Iran's oil ministry said on the 5th that Iran is bypassing US sanctions and selling crude oil in the "grey market". The official news agency of the Islamic Republic of Iran quoted Amir Hossein zamaniya, Deputy Minister of oil, as saying that Iran "has mobilized all resources in the country to sell crude oil in the 'grey market'. Zamaniya did not explain the meaning of "grey market" and disclose details, including crude oil export volume

in an interview with Reuters on April 25, Iranian foreign minister jawadzarif said that "there is always a way to bypass the sanctions", and Iran will make every effort to continue to sell crude oil. Zarif refused to disclose the target of oil sales considered by the Iranian side. Zamaniya said on the 5th that Iran's oil sales in the "grey market" are "not smuggling, but resisting illegal US sanctions"

Iranian oil minister zangane said on the 1st that Iran has launched some new channels to ensure oil exports. Zangane said that oil export is the most important link for Iran to meet the procurement purpose of this time, and Iran may allow private capital to invest in Iranian oil in the future

greater uncertainty in the crude oil market

OPEC Secretary General baljindo said that it is impossible to completely remove Iran from the global crude oil market. The reduction of Iranian crude oil output will exacerbate the threat to the global crude oil market. Baljindo said that the OPEC Secretariat is discussing countermeasures with the Iranian oil ministry

at present, some OPEC member states are facing international sanctions. OPEC Secretary General baljindo said in Tehran on the 2nd that OPEC would spare no effort to avoid the outbreak of a global "energy crisis". Baljindo said that we will continue to focus on the goal of avoiding an energy crisis because it may affect the global economy. OPEC member States pledged to be united and not to relapse into the chaos they have faced in recent years

although US President trump asked Saudi Arabia to take the lead in increasing oil production to make up for the supply shortage caused by US sanctions against Iran, the Saudi energy minister still said that Saudi Arabia would not be in a hurry to increase crude oil supply, and would continue to abide by the production reduction agreement reached by major oil producing countries at the end of last year, and might even extend the agreement to the end of this year. This means that Saudi Arabia still hopes to maintain the current production reduction

according to the current production reduction agreement, OPEC oil producing countries and non OPEC oil producing countries led by Russia will reduce their crude oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day until the end of June this year. OPEC and its allies will meet in Vienna from June 25 to 26 to discuss the next production plan

but when talking about the impact of the situation in Iran on the oil market, Saudi energy minister Khalid Falih said a few days ago that there is no shortage of supply in the world market, and there is nothing to worry about in this regard

many countries have called for the resumption of dialogue

after the termination of crude oil import exemption, theoretically, no country or region has any legal way to conduct crude oil transactions with Iran, and it is difficult for any bank to deal with the business involving Iranian crude oil transactions. All shipping vessels exporting Iranian crude oil can also be seized by the US Navy

the high representative of the European Union and the foreign ministers of France, Germany and Britain issued a joint statement on the Iranian nuclear agreement on the 4th, expressing regret and concern about the US decision not to grant any country or region the exemption from continuing to import Iranian crude oil, and expressing concern about the US termination of the exemption from some of Iran's nuclear non-proliferation projects within the framework of the Iranian nuclear agreement

the statement said that all parties involved in the Iran nuclear agreement are committed to maintaining Iran's capital flow and export trade, and jointly support the Iran nuclear agreement with relevant third parties. The EU, France, Germany and the UK will continue to work with other European partners to safeguard legitimate trade with Iran, especially through the instead settlement mechanism for trade with Iran. In addition, relevant participants will significantly increase their financial support for the instex settlement mechanism. France, Germany and the United Kingdom issued a joint statement earlier this year, announcing the establishment of an instex settlement mechanism for trade with Iran. The full name of the mechanism is "trade support tool". It is a payment mechanism operating outside the global financial system dominated by the United States. It helps European enterprises bypass the unilateral sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran and enable the EU to continue trade with Iran

in the past year, US sanctions have had a great impact on Iran's economy. According to the data of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), since the U.S. restarted sanctions against Iran, the inflation rate in Iran has soared to 40%, and 42000 rials can be exchanged for a dollar. The IMF predicts that Iran's gross domestic product (GDP) will continue to decline this year

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